Oscar Predictions 2005

Since the Sheaf, didn't print all of my predictions, and more importantly, didn't print any of my preferences, I thought I'd list the entire bunch for all you movie fans.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

This category is the no-brainer. Jamie Foxx is a truly amazing imitation of Ray Charles, but that’s just it: it’s an imitation. The uncanny resemblance trumps and real acting here, so expect Jamie to take home the gold and Clint to be recognized behind the camera instead of in front. As in most Oscar categories, most means best. Also, it’s a crime that Paul Giamatti wasn’t nominated for “Sideways.” If there were any justice in the world he would win on a “write-in” vote on Sunday night.

Prediction: Jamie Foxx (“Ray”)

Preference: Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby”)

Biggest Snubs: Paul Giamatti (“Sideways”), Jim Carrey (“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”)

Performance by an actress in a leading role

A rematch of 1999’s Bening vs. Swank title match, and this fan expects a repeat for Ms. Swank (somehow the boxing metaphor seems apt in this case). The Academy loves roles of this sort and with me predicting that “The Aviator” will win the big one, the Academy will send a few more the way of the “Baby.” Possible upset would be Imelda Staunton (“Vera Drake”), an older actor who has never been recognized, but I think in this case the nod is the award.

Prediction: Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”)

Preference: Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”)

Biggest Snub: Uma Thurman (“Kill Bill, Vol. 2”)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

With my prediction that “Sideways” will be shut out in most of the big categories, so this is where the Academy will show the film the love. Thomas Hayden-Church’s Stifler-esque best friend gets the most laughs, and is a comeback performance for a former TV-star (anyone remember “Wings” or “Ned and Stacey”?).

Prediction: Thomas Hayden-Church (“Sideways”)

Preference: Clive Owen (“Closer”)

Biggest Snub: Gary Oldman (“Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban”)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Again, I’m predicting a win for “Sideways” and Virginia Madsen. Her award will be well deserved, but Natalie Portman, who had two great performances this year, each the best part of the films she was in, should get this award. On the bright side, Natalie’s future is wide open and I expect to see her in this category again.

Prediction: Virginia Madsen (“Sideways”)

Preference: Natalie Portman (“Closer”)

Biggest Snub: Natalie Portman (“Garden State”)

Best animated feature of the year

“The Incredibles” should be nominated for Best Picture. There is no competition here, and I don’t really want to talk about it. One wonders what would have happened if this category had not existed. Would “The Incredibles” join “Beauty and the Beast” as the only animated film to be nominated for Best Picture?

Prediction: “The Incredibles”

Preference: “The Incredibles”

Has no business being there: “Shark Tale”

Achievement in directing

Unfortunately Martin Scorsese has never won an Oscar, despite helming some of the greatest films of all time (“Goodfellas”, “Taxi Driver”). This is a tight race and he might take the gold home as a kind of “lifetime achievement prize”, but I think the impression is that “The Aviator” isn’t really Marty’s best film (and is really Leo’s pet project), and so the prize will go to Clint for his best film, “Million Dollar Baby.”

Prediction: Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby”)

Preference: Martin Scorsese (“The Aviator”)

Biggest Snub: Michel Gondry (“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”)

Best foreign language film of the year

I have seen none of the nominated films here, but I did see some foreign films this year. Inexplicably, Zhang Yimou was completely shut out for both “Hero” and “House of Flying Daggers.” Maybe the Academy was all “Crouching Tiger”-ed out? Anyway, expect “The Sea Inside” to win. Javier Bardem was on the short list for a possible Best Actor nod, and the Academy loves a good sob story.

Prediction: “The Sea Inside”

Preference: “The Sea Inside”

Biggest Snub: “Hero”

Adapted Screenplay

Perhaps one of the strongest categories in the show, this is a tight race between “Sideways” and “Million Dollar Baby.” But because I’m predicting more gold for “Baby”, this one will go to “Sideways” as compensation for Alexander Payne. I guess no one considers a comic book adaptation (“Spider-man 2”) by a Pulitzer Prize-winning novelist (Michael Chabon) good enough these days.

Prediction: “Sideways”

Preference: “Before Sunset”

Biggest Snub: “Spider-man 2”

Original Screenplay

Surprisingly difficult category to fill this year, but I’m going to go against Derek and say that this will be “Eternal Sunshine”’s token win. Yes, Kaufman may win again, but this is easily his best script so far and this category is often where the mostly traditional Academy will award offbeat brilliance.

Prediction: “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

Preference: “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”

Biggest Snub: “The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou”

Best motion picture of the year

I’m going to say this is a two-way race that is almost too close to call, but since I think the Best Director award will go to Clint, I’m going to call this one for “The Aviator.” There is a pattern to the Academy’s madness, alternating a Picture/Director split with a Picture/Director match. Last year was Jackson’s time to shine, so this year they go back to the split. In the end, “The Aviator” is the safe choice for Academy members.

Prediction: “The Aviator”

Preference: “Sideways”

Biggest Snub: “Spider-man 2”, “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”